I like stats. I like the stories they can tell.
The danger is that you can make them tell the story you want, so you have to go in with open eyes, and see what they tell you, not what you want them to tell you.
When it comes to Freddie Draper, I wanted them to tell me we’ve got a young Matt Rhead, a player with the benefit of youth but the brute force of Rheady. The big man had poise and grace at times, like a battering ram ornately carved with a tapestry of footballing art. You’d swing it at a defence and cause chaos, but in the middle, there was this artist, capable of overhead kicks from outside the area.
I see Fred as a bit like that. He’s got good technique, and I wanted to see he was the same physical presence. I wanted to say, ‘hey, look how similar these are in the numbers’. Actually, the numbers paint two stories, one of a playstyle and another of the subtle differences between our 21-year-old bully and our title-winning battering ram.
Firstly, the numbers, and then the analysis.
Freddie Draper – 2025-26
From 1773 minutes in League One, 21 starts and seven outings from the bench
| Metric | Per 90 | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.30 | 6 |
| Assists | 0.10 | 2 |
| Shots (on target) | 1.83 (41.7%) | 36 (41.7%) |
| xG | 0.27 | 5.35 |
| Dribbles (successful) | 1.78 (40%) | 35 (40%) |
| Aerial duels (won) | 12.39 (34%) | 244 (34%) |
| Shot assists | 0.20 | 4 |
| Offensive duels (won) | 10.05 (31.8%) | 198 (31.8%) |
| Touches in penalty area | 2.54 | 50 |
| Fouls suffered | 1.52 | 30 |
Matt Rhead
From 3027 minutes in League Two, 35 starts and eight outings from the bench.
| Metric (2017/18) | Per 90 | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.24 | 8 |
| Assists | 0.27 | 9 |
| Shots (on target) | 1.64 (45.5%) | 55 (45.5%) |
| xG | 0.29 | 9.76 |
| Dribbles (successful) | 0.36 (41.7%) | 12 (41.7%) |
| Aerial duels (won) | 21.62 (55.6%) | 727 (55.6%) |
| Shot assists | 1.01 | 34 |
| Offensive duels (won) | 5.50 (30.3%) | 185 (30.3%) |
| Touches in penalty area | 3.18 | 107 |
| Fouls suffered | 1.81 | 61 |
They’re presented initially without comment for you to peruse. They’re correct according to Wyscout as of today (Thursday, 29th Jan, 2026), apart from me adding Freddie’s assists from Burton, which Wyscout did not get right.
Now, the analysis!
Conclusion
Firstly, there is some context to the numbers. Matt Rhead played primarily as a starting striker in a two, and at League Two level. He was also older than Draper, so he was likely to be used in a different way. It was also a very different approach, and the numbers show that his aerial duels were far higher in 2017/18 than Freddie’s this season.
I used Rhead’s first EFL season for us, not the second, as he didn’t play as much, but the similarities are there, as are the differences.
Rheady was involved in nearly twice as many aerial duels as Freddie, meaning while we get classed as long ball, and a bit Cowley-esque (not a slur), the truth is we don’t play it as long as we did back in those League Two days. Freddie doesn’t quite win as many as Rheady, but still has a decent number.
Then there’s the dribbling. We know Rheady wasn’t a runner, and 0.36 dribbles per game show that, whereas Freddie is. He’s big and strong, capable of bullying defenders, but he runs a lot more than the big man did – almost five times as many dribbles, with a near identical success rate.
Aerial duels are not the only barometer of strength and bullying – winning offensive duels is as well, and again, Freddie’s numbers are good. Like with his dribbles, his numbers are higher in terms of volume – Rheady contesting around five per 90 minutes, Freddie contesting ten. Their success rate, again, is near identical.
We are beginning to see a picture forming of two players that certainly have similarities in terms of success, but stark differences as well. One of those is, as people would tell you, the ultimate test, goals and assists. Rheady does come out on top there – just. In terms of goals, Freddie is tracking slightly higher than Rheady, 0.30 to 0.24 per game, but Rheayd’s assists, flick-ons and the like, 0.27 compared to Freddie’s 0.10 per game. Rheady created a lot more as well, averaging around one shot assist per 90 minutes.
There are similarities, and I think if Rheady were younger and a little more mobile when we had him, his dribbling stats would be higher. Likewise, if we played a much more direct game, two up top and looked for those flick-ons for Freddie, his assists and shot assists would be higher. Rheady is slightly better for touches in the box, Freddie is slightly better for shots per 90, but there is a similarity in profile and output.
However, an out-and-out comparison is not entriely fair on either. Still, it’s nice to look at the numbers and remember a three-time trophy-winning battering ram while also appreciating our own young bully of the new era.