I like numbers in football. Not as much as Chris, but I believe in them.
Numbers do tell a story. Stats do tell a story. The eye test, it partially tells the story you want to see. That’s why the miserable bugger who sits behind you is always moaning, because he sees misery at the football. It’s why some see no wrong in a player, because their eye tells them that. It’s the same as when you think about your kids – they’re never really wrong, because your eyes and brain want to tell a story that, sometimes, isn’t always the fact.
If your kid is getting rubbish marks at school, that’s a number and that’s a fact. There’s no disputing it, no arguing. That’s where stats come into football. If a player is accused of not being able to pass Go on a Monopoly board without giving the ball away, then the numbers should back that up.
Conor McGrandles is one such player. He’s had a lot of stick around me, and from people on social media. Even I fell into the trap of questioning whether he could pass the ball. Playing Devil’s Advocate, he has been slightly out of position for much of the season, but his distribution has (often) been called into question.
So, does Conor McGrandles give the ball away too much, or are those who knock him simply noticing when he does, and not when he completes a pass?
Before I continue, these stats are from Wyscout, and they’re for the last calendar year. However, Wyscout does not have the early rounds of the FA Cup included.
Pass Accuracy
Our pass accuracy ranges from 85.07% (Ethan Erhahon) to 58.89% (Bailey Cadamarteri). Generally, I think you’d expect forwards to have lower pass accuracy, as they tend to see the ball further up the field, with more traffic. However, I thought defenders would top the numbers – under Appleton, they did, because they played so many sideways passes.
Where does Conor McGrandles rank in terms of pass accuracy? He’s second best, on 82.36%. So, the myth that he always gives the ball away has been disproved. There we go, quick article. Incidentally, Ethan Hamilton is third on 82%. Not a bad little trio.
Forward Pass Accuracy
Of course, it’s not all about pass accuracy. If all Conor did was lay the ball backwards, it wouldn’t be as challenging for him to make an accurate pass. That’s where forward pass accuracy comes into play. Like before, different positions probably have different outcomes here, and it’s worth noting the number of forward passes per 90, as well as the accuracy.
Defenders play the most forward passes (Sean Roughan on 22.6 per 90), whereas strikers player the fewest (Bailey Cadamarteri on 2.31). Conor is middle of the pack, playing fewer than Ethan Erhahon and Tom Bayliss, on 9.98. He is 10th overall for number of forward passes, but 11th for forward pass accuracy. It could be argued that those numbers do, to a point, prove that his distrubtion hasn’t been on point all season.
For the record, while Ethan Erhahon is 8th for number of passes, he’s top for forward pass accuracy. He really is a different class.
Backward Passes
I’ve seen (and perhaps even said) that Conor seems to play more backwards passes than other midfielders, which I know frustrates people. Again, perception and reality are not that far apart – only Dom Jeffries (8.55) and Reeco Hackett (8.45) play more backwards passes per game than Conor. Ethan Erhahon is 8th.
As 20 of the squad have an average success rate of more than 90%, it’s not really fair to say Conor scores badly – he’s seventh, but with a 95.7% success rate. While he does favour a backwards pass, he’s certainly no less accurate than most of the squad.
Sideways Passes
Again, there’s a big range, from 16.86 per 90 mins to two. Ethan Erhahon is second on 16.81, with Paudie O’Connor first on 16.86. Conor is up there, sixth, on 11.2 per 90. He’s fifth in terms of accuracy, packing an impressive 87.7% for his lateral passes. The range there is 93.2% as the best, from Paudie, to 47.42%, which is Rob Street.
Again, that suggests Conor doesn’t give the ball away as much as people think. Remember, your eyes lie, but more often than not, numbers do not.
Conclusion
What can we tell from these numbers, other than that Ethan Erhahon is excellent? I think it shows that, actually, Conor McGrandles doesn’t give the ball away much. It’s perception. He does favour a backwards pass, more so than any of our other midfielders, but not to the point where it’s all he does – he’s up there for sideways and still ranks for forward passes as well.