Shots, Headers, Duels and Passes – The Imps’ 2019/20 broken down and analysed

xG (Expected Goals)

I used to laugh at people who talked about xG. Expected goals… what a load of guff, right? Then I started to watch teams who had high expected goals but low return; those teams were the ones who crept up the tab;le as the season went on. I looked at sides outperforming xG, those with flair players capable of conjuring up magic but without ten other players creating good opportunities. Those teams fell away, Plymouth being a great example. They outperformed their xG all through to 2017/18 season, but it wasn’t sustaiable and they missed out on the play-offs, suffering relegation a year later. Like it or not, it’s a valuable indicator of how a team or player is doing.

As a high xG shows a player is getting in good positions, I don’t feel it counter-productive to show both sides of the coin here, so you’re getting players outperfroming their xG and underperforming. The first table shows the players who are doing better than their chances suggest, although we only have three. The other two on the list are hitting their xG – they’re scoring as many as the chances they create suggest they should be.

There will be a few little shocks here. Believe it or not, Big John is outperforming his xG data, just. That means he shouldn’t have quite as many goals as the chances he’s had suggest. I suppose it’s pertinent to point out at this stage (again) that the FA Cup matches are not included in this data, but even if he went slightly lower than the table above, it still highlights him as one of the better performing players.

Michael O’Connor and Tyler Walker score exactly as many as they should, whereas Harry Anderson and Harry Toffolo outperform their data. There’s a strong shout here for Harry Anderson to get back in the side, or rather another strong shout I should say. He’s up there in lots of different tables and a strong coach will find a way of getting his talents to best fit the teams ethos.

The second table shows the players who are scoring far fewer than the xG data suggests they should be.

As soon as I saw Hesketh against Man United Under 21s that night, I knew we had a player capable of scoring goals. In his short time on the field he should have bagged a goal or two for us according to the data and again, that doesn’t include the Ipswich matches. He’s one of those players around the front two who is sure to dip into the goals soon and when he does, we’ll be flying.

Two other unsurprising names on those underperforming their data are Jack Payne and Jorge Grant. These are talented players who are not hitting the target for different reasons, but the chances are falling to them. Bozzy is one I was surprised to see on the list, obviously a couple of chances have fallen to him he’s failed to put away.

Bruno’s numbers are close together and perhaps a goal for four of these five would see them in the other table. Mind you, four additional goals over the last sixteen games might have won us an extra six or eight points, showing how crucial it is that the players getting in good positions find a way to be more clinical.

The big conclusion here, for those who skipped the text, are as follows: Bozzy is a big miss, Harry Anderson should be given more of a chance, we don’t create enough chances, the problem isn’t solely the strikers and Jake Hesketh is one man who might just be able to turn our form around. Who said numbers tell lies?