Just how far can City go?

In the aftermath of the wonderful win against Peterborough it is easy to get carried away. Beating a side currently eighth in League One has prompted many to ponder exactly how good we might be. Those of us at Barnet might not yet be drawn into such debates.

Blog reader and long-term Imps fan Kate Jackson tweeted me asking how I thought we’d do if we did go up. I’ve been giving it a lot of thought since and felt there might be a good article in it.

Gary, over the last 13 months we’ve more than held our own against team from League One, if we did go up how do you think we’d do in our first season? I think we’d comfortably be midtable if we kept hold of the Cowleys for another year.

— Kate Jackson (@katejackson84) January 23, 2018

Yes, over the last eighteen months we have comfortably held our own against League One sides. We’ve beaten Rochdale, Oldham and now Peterborough, losing only to Wimbledon in the FA Cup. If those were league matches, nine points from twelve would be promotion material. However, you and I know the world doesn’t work like that.

Players rise to the occasion far more in cups than in the league. In theory, if we can beat Posh 4-2 we shouldn’t have a trouble hammering Newport next week, but then again they beat Leeds, so would that make them better than us? Cup football is a one-off and although we’ve never been outplayed by a higher division side (apart from Arsenal) it isn’t proof of us being able to hold our own in the division above.

Now, to complete contradict myself, I believe we are more than capable of becoming an established League One side. I know those pessimists amongst you will tell me to hold my horses, others will remember the turgid affair at the Hive and think I’m mad, but I believe we’re more equipped for the third tier now than at any time during my tenure as an Imps fan, which for those who don’t know me is standing at 32 years.

We’re currently in the middle of arguably the most successful period in Lincoln City’s history. In the space of twelve months we’ve contested an FA Cup quarter-final, an FA Trophy semi-final, we’ve won a league title and we’re not only into the semi-final of the Football league Trophy, but also battling for an unprecedented successive promotion. Were we to pull off either a Wembley final or back to back promotions, we would surpass anything that has gone before in 133 years of existence. When you put it like that, it puts the draw at Barnet into some context.

One year ago today we had achieved none of that. We were about to face an FA Cup fourth round tie, we had reached a similar stage of the FA Trophy and we were top of the league, but we’d achieved nothing at all. I was asked then about our chances of promotion by my friend Pete, and I replied something typical cautious like “take one game at a time.” He responded by telling me “if you go up this season, you’ll be highly likely to do the same next season also.” At the time I thought he was just being enthusiastic because he felt sorry for me watching National League football every week, but if you knew Pete you’d know he was deadly serious. A year later and his belief is looking more likely than ever.

Can we do it though? Firstly, can we get promoted this season and if we do, would we hold our own in the division above?

Straight off the bat I’ll nail my colours to the mast and state we absolutely can get promoted this season. All the things we can control, we do control. Our squad has changed significantly, but not suddenly. Heroes we thought wouldn’t be replaceable such as Terry Hawkridge and Alan Power have, with respect, been easily replaced. The quality coming into Sincil Bank is such that the ever-present heroes of last season are finding it hard to get a kick. Luke Waterfall, Nathan Arnold and Paul Farman were all mainstays of our success, but they’re battling hard for games at present. Michael Bostwick, James Wilson and Matt Green are the type of player I never expected us to be in the market for, without mentioning Danny Rowe and Lee Frecklington. Our transfer policy is certainly quality over quantity and those coming in are improving the squad immeasurably. If every side in this division had to operate on a squad of just 20, ours would be as strong as any other in the division. Where sides like Luton have the edge is the 26th or 27th man in their squad, the ability to adequately cover injuries and suspensions.

We can’t control referee decisions nor injuries, two factors I think will influence the second half of the season. If Michael Bostwick was ruled out for three months it would seriously derail any promotion bid, especially after the departure of Sean Raggett. The same could be said for Matt Green too, they’re both players we have to keep fit and fresh if we’re going to go up. We need a little bit of luck too, a cheeky rebound or a lucky goal line clearance, but promotion is within our grasp. I still believe automatic is possible, we’re a fit and organised side who have already proven to be stronger in the second half of a season. If we continue to improve from now until May, why can’t we finish third?

The second part of the question is trickier to answer and relies on conjecture rather than hard facts, but if we do go up can we survive in League One? I can’t see any reason why not. Most of our new recruits are coming from League One or have experience of it and combined with those in our squad who are good enough such as Alex Woodyard and Sam Habergham, there’s no reason we wouldn’t do well up there. We’d need some recruits, but that goes without saying. I think it would be harder to rely on such a small squad also, you wouldn’t want to be up against Blackburn or whoever comes down with just Matt Green, Matt Rhead and Ollie Palmer up front. No, we’d need to recruit but as a League One or Championship player out of favour at your club, why wouldn’t you join Lincoln? Danny and Nicky have done wonders in attracting players already, there’s no doubt in my mind we could recruit strongly.

Financially it has often been said Lincoln ‘can’t afford to go up’. I heard it throughout the 1990’s and I know it was muttered in the early 1980’s. It isn’t the case now. Commercially, Lincoln City are probably still behind the likes of Colchester and Crewe, but we’re improving by the day. Our off field development has had to happen quickly too and around the club there is a feeling that we’re ‘getting there’ now. The club’s brand has never been more attractive though and with such a large fan base there’s no reason why we can’t be financially stable for a good few years. We need cup runs, we need investment and we need a new ground, but all are happening at different speeds. We also need 5,000 odd season ticket holders though, after all wasn’t the ‘break-even’ point around 3,600 a couple of seasons ago? We’re not rich, but we’re making hay whilst the sun shines and rightly so.

We’ve got a wider spread of experience and business acumen around the boardroom table now. I’ll never be critical of the guys who sailed us through the National League waters, but since Clive has arrived the board has expanded even more. Greg Levine brings international know-how from a completely different industry, something that will blend wonderfully with the passionate life-long fans such as Bob and Roger. Again, there’s cause for optimism at board level too.

So squad wise, we’d be okay, commercially we’d be okay and the board looks set for expansion too. The fans are still coming in their droves and we keep getting results. Why couldn’t we be a stable League One side in 12 months time? If I rang my friend Pete now and asked him, he’d probably say; “why not the Championship?” Rotherham, Scunthorpe, Crewe and Yeovil have all done it , why not Lincoln City? Everything is in place, so the question is entirely valid, why not Lincoln City? Why couldn’t we steam through the third tier also?

For now, I’ll leave that question as a rhetorical one, but in answer to my title question, I think we can go as far as anyone else, as long as we all keep working together. We must remain stoic and unwavering in our support of the managers and the players, we must trust in those running the club, not just the first team but the whole club from top to bottom. We must get a training ground fully operational and we must lay the foundations for the next decade in our youth system and a new ground move. However, there’s no reason why we will not keep doing these things and as Scunthorpe have demonstrated, if things go your way you can soon find yourself a small provincial club from a county of farmers, yo-yoing between the second and third tier. Given where we’ve come from, I’ll take that all day long and well into the evening.