Six points separate Bolton Wanderers and us, and we have a chance to add to that gap if we win our game in hand. Even a win for them this weekend would be a blow, but would still leave matters in our hands.
It’s utter madness when you think about it. 18th in the budget table, Lincoln City have kept the pressure up on the division’s elite, battering teams with three or four times the budget down the table, swatting them like flies. We didn’t beat Luton and Huddersfield, but they didn’t beat us either. Do the same to Stockport and Bolton over the next few weeks, and we’re going to be much stronger again.
How is this happening? It’s obvious to say stuff like ‘it just clicked’ or ‘we got rid of bad eggs’, but they’re not truthful or accurate. Bolton are challenging us with Erhahon, so he can’t be that much of a bad egg, and we’re approaching games in the same manner as we often have under Skubala.
No, there are many finer nuances to our success, reasons that delve beyond the obvious lazy assumptions. Just like we do more than just get the ball into the box, there is much more to our success than things ‘just clicking’. But what are they?
Here are five reasons I think our promotion push is going to take it down to the wire.
By the way, there is one overarching reason, like a family tree, these are the five offspring from the ‘good management’ parent. I’m talking Michael Skubala, obviously, but also Jez, Liam and the board, as well as the coaching staff and backroom team. There is a synergy that produces the five outcomes I’m about to cover.
1 – We get balls into the box
I had to start with this for a chuckle. I’d probably have gone with the ‘good management’ thing, but in truth, I quite like the getting balls into the box starting point. The fact is set pieces are a huge part of the game: there are lots of restarts, and with our long throw weapon and great delivery from corners, we’re in a good place to always nick a goal.
That matters. Teams fear us, they’re cramming the six-yard box now, desperate not to concede. So, while we may not score from a corner or a throw, we can get teams blocked in. They retreat, clear, and it falls to Reach or Moylan on the edge of the area for another go. Ben House’s goal against Bradford is a classic example of that, the ball was recycled from a cleared long throw, giving us a chance for a second delivery.
2 – Tactically, we’re just better than other teams
It shocks me sometimes how lazy other clubs feel. Jack Wilshere was saying all we do is get balls into the box (see point one as to why that isn’t a single tactic), but that’s blind. Often, teams are so focused on themselves that they forget us. They are so focused on what they do, they think they’re facing the same 23 faceless opponents every time, like some sort of henchman horde from a Bond movie.
We don’t do that. We look properly at every team, and we target certain weaknesses. In confidence, I was told about something we’d seen that Plymouth do, related not just to a habit of theirs, but also their expected team selection and circumstances. The plan, albeit something really small, was explained with a ‘keep it quiet’ because it was obvious ahead of the game. In-game, we scored from the exact weaknesses we’d spotted, and Tom Cleverley then mentioned it in his post-match.
I think it is arrogant to just believe we’re better than everyone else, and I’m sure some managers do look to stop us (Luke Williams got it right for Posh first 20 minutes, for example), but we often work that out. When Michael says ‘we made a little tweak at half time’, he does mean it. It’s not just telling one player to do something different; we change a whole press, or we adjust width, or we drop one player deeper, just to combat something we’ve seen. It’s why you’ll rarely see us be bad for 90 minutes, if something goes wrong (Wycombe), we can tweak to get back into games.
3 – Confidence
This team is confident. In November, players were shooting from range, and stuff was going high and wide. Freddie was connecting with headers and not getting the contact; the second balls would bounce the wrong way, all those things. We began to lose confidence, but to our credit, we kept doing things we knew would work. I recall being 2-0 down at Rotherham and Fred missing a chance just before half time, I thought ‘at least we’re still going’. No dip in confidence in terms of trying, but the outcomes just weren’t there.
Contrast that with September, Peterborough away, where an even game ended 3-0 because we did get ‘lucky’ (see point five). Contrast it with now, where you feel everything Reeco touches will nestle in the net, or every header Fred goes for, he’ll win. Jack Moylan looks problematic every time he gets on the ball, and it feels like we’re just in the zone. These are good players, always have been, but now they’re good players who believe in themselves and their teammates, and that’s a great combination.
Think about Plymouth, their keeper being booed, where is his confidence? After they conceded, they looked nervous, like they lacked belief, and yet when we concede, it just seems to be more of the same. We look confident, and when you believe in yourself and your teammates, it is amazing what you can achieve.
4 – Good recruitment
I’m not just talking about the players we’ve signed being good here. Josh Honohan and Deji Elerewe are not impacting right now, and the players who are thriving, Reeco, Fred, Rob Street, Conor McGrandles (hell, the whole team) have been here for six months or more, all settled. We haven’t had many misses in terms of recruitment; we’ve signed good people who work hard for each other.
We don’t just sign workers, though. McGrandles is showing some lovely technique of late, wriggling out of tight holes with the ball like a prime Ethan Erhahon. Tendayi might lead by example, as do Sonny Bradley and Adam Reach, but they’re all technically sound, experienced at a higher level and driving standards. That gives the younger players, Freddie, Jack Moylan and that ilk, role models to follow, and they’re all responding brilliantly.
This winter’s window was, to a degree, successful in the immediate moment as well. The players we have brought in are not necessarily going to be starting the next 16 games, but they cover gaps. However, they also helped freshen up the squad. Frankoe Okoronkwo is probably the best example of this. 30 games in, he would have known he was cover, nothing more. So, if we get to 70 minutes against Plymouth and he comes on, he knows that is ‘his lot’. Why would he dislodge Freddie Draper or Rob Street with a decent performance if he hadn’t in the 30 games before? I’m sure he was committed and there is no question over his application, but he would have been a slightly stagnant corner of the squad. Maybe Fin Barbrook would have been similar, Dexter Lembikisa would have been.
Now, we have Alfie Lloyd and Ryan Oné. We haven’t seen them, and they are fresh and new. Like a new employee at a job, they’ll be eager, hungry to impress, full of belief that they can impact the team because they’re new, because we wanted them in January, rather than us debating whether to send them back. They’ll fill a little corner of the dressing room with enthusiasm and competition, which can only be great for the squad.
In fact, with all the contracts tied up as well, you have to wonder if there is anyone in the dressing room at all not quite on it. I’m even told Erik Ring, struggling to get game time, is training like a monster and there is a suggestion that while he may have had January options, his choice was to stay here and be a part of what we’re doing.
5 – Luck (aka hard work)
You need a little bit of luck, don’t you? A corner that goes in directly, a bounce that falls to a player on the edge of the area. Early in the season, we got on the wrong side of a couple of decisions, in recent weeks we got on the right side of a couple.
However, corners going in, players finding themselves in space 25 yards out for a volley, those things aren’t just about luck. They’re about hard work, and I think it was Thomas Jefferson who made the link between working hard and getting lucky. The title of this section is meant to be a little ironic, as it isn’t the luck at all. It’s hard work.
Do we stay injury-free because of luck? To a degree, a little, but we have a great medical team, we manage minutes and load. Remember last January we signed James Collins and only played him every other game for a few weeks. He scored ten goals (I think) and stayed injury-free. Meanwhile, the ‘unlucky’ Huddersfield dropped Joe Taylor in for three lots of 90 minutes after months sitting on the bench, and he gets injured. Luck?
Reeco’s corner might have been luck, but it might also have been the third corner or set piece we had in a row, creating panic and instability in the defence. Bim Pepple going off was described as ‘lucky’, but we also lost our club record signing in that moment as well, so where is the luck in that, really? The difference was we were able to bring on a replacement in Tom Bayliss who was outstanding, whereas Plymouth’s replacement was not good enough.
I do think the harder you work, the better you prepare and the more meticulous you are in everything you do, the luckier you become, and that makes me think in 16 games time, we might just be lucky enough to still be in the automatic promotion picture.