Usually, I do my analytic write-up the morning after the game, but seeing as I have barely stopped working since the game against Burton kicked off, this is my earliest opportunity.
It does feel like I should wait until other results come in at present, because things are looking so interesting that the quality of our result can only truly be measured against that of other clubs in and around us. With us playing on Thursday, and others kicking off from lunchtime Saturday, we only knew the importance of our win once they had come in.
The key takeaway was that we did what we needed to do. All you can do is win games and watch, so in beating Burton 2-1, we ticked our weekend box. We then waited to see which of our rivals for a top six spot (yes, top six for now) dropped points. Bradford’s narrow defeat against Huddersfield meant their six-point gap with two games in hand now becomes six points and one game, with us having the chance on Tuesday to put them aside. Stockport and Cardiff graciously finished 1-1, for anyone thinking we might still get top spot, while Luton lost away at Plymouth, maybe an early warning for us for our imminent trip there.
Sadly, Orient could not quite hold on to see us extend our lead over Bolton by two points, and they shifted into third place, a position I expect them to now fight with Stockport for while both sides try to reel us in. They have always been the two I have been most fearful of in terms of the league, while Burton Albion are the side I have been most fearful of in terms of opponents, at least for a few weeks.
Four games. One goal, no points. That is our recent home record against the Brewers, and even missing key players, they came and did exactly what I expected. I cannot fathom how they are so low down in the league, because for me, they are a great example of a team. Depleted, defeated quite a bit, and yet somehow they still made me feel more fearful than Huddersfield did on New Year’s Day.
Referee under scrutiny
Before anything, I am going to pick up on the referee, Matthew Corlett. Many of their fans were raging at his performance, especially Gary Bowyer, who snubbed Tom Shaw’s handshake at full-time for some unknown reason, causing a few scenes. He then criticised the referee for missing a penalty on Adom by Bradley, omitting the fact it was probably a foul on Bradley in the build-up.
One thing I always say about referees is I will criticise when they are bad, but if we get away with something, I acknowledge that as well. We got away with it at Luton, but to single out that one moment and say “we should have had a penalty” is short-sighted. Firstly, it ignores the possible foul on Tendayi at the other end, which, in fairness, I was angry about at the time, but not watching back. However, what about the Dom Jefferies shirt-pull in the area, shown below?
I am not usually one for “whataboutery”, but in this instance, if you are going to refuse handshakes and criticise the referee, you have to take a balanced view. Maybe it is a fallacy with interviews straight after the game, but I do not usually hear Michael Skubala giving a one-sided view, and for me, Bowyer’s actions and blinkered comments devalued what was a really good performance from his side.
Let’s be honest, we were not great, but we got the job done. Lose that game, and the knives are out in the stands, so while I am delighted, I would be rose-tinted if I did not say it was a tough watch at times. That said, one shield the likes of me always uses is that winning when you do not play well is the sign of a good team. I suspect in all of the seasons post-Cowley, up to this campaign, we do not win that game. Why? Their goal.
We are a better side than Burton. There are reasons for that, their injury crisis being one. We just are. We get the job done, we have youth and experience, we have a deeper squad, and while the budgets are maybe comparable, we are second and they are not. That said, I rate them higher than maybe I should. With a full squad, Burton finish 13th or 14th comfortably. Webster, McKiernan and Shade are big misses for them, a bit like taking McGrandles, House and Hackett out for us.
Still, they battle, and unusually, it was us conceding after going ahead. In a game like that, where you are fighting hard but maybe not quite gelling, scoring the first goal is crucial. On the way to the game, I recall someone saying (Chris, I think) it is either 0-0, or we score first and win 3-0. When we scored first, if we are tight for ten minutes, I think their fight goes, but getting back into the game immediately was a big blow for us.
That is the moment weaker sides crumble. That is the moment, after huffing and puffing to get a 1-0 lead, that breaks spirits. That is the moment top teams show character and keep going, rather than getting suffocated by the occasion and drawing or, even worse, losing. Think 2022, John Marquis puts us ahead against them, and they level seven minutes later. What happens? They win 2-1. This time, we managed to find a way back into the game.
This is meant to just be analysis, but a word on Jack Moylan. When he is good, he is very good, and while he drifted in and out of the game, as did most players, he showed his quality with one great finish, and his determination with another. Of course, he grabbed the headlines, but I am having a moment for Freddie as well. Outstanding against Luton, I thought he put in a top shift again on Thursday. The first goal is an assist for him (not that the increasingly unreliable Wyscout is to be believed, but it is), the second came from his shot being saved, and while Bowyer might have missed it, I am surprised he came off the pitch with a shirt that was not torn and tattered. For me, he was one of our top players again.
The theme here is resilience. We were not great. The conditions were not great, and our passing was slightly awry, certainly showing lower success percentages for forward passes and passes into the final third. We showed fewer recoveries than any game since early December, and fewer high up the pitch. We were not bad, that would be hyperbole, but we just were not quite at Peterborough levels, for instance. Yet, we still found a way to win, we still dug deep against a side that has terrorised us at home, and got a win. Remember, the last time we beat them at the Bank was December 2020. Five years of struggle in what is now the most “League One” match there is, and we finished with three points, and ten men.
We probably should have finished with ten men. Alfie Lloyd picked up a yellow for a pull-back, and then minutes later went in a little late in the middle of the park. We have seen refs not send off players for quick succession offences (Brennan Johnson v MK Dons, Mal Benning for Shrewsbury against us, Luke Leahy, I seem to recall, maybe for Wycombe), so it is standard, but a referee like Aaron Bannister probably shows a red.
Anyway, that is me done on the Burton game. It was not a classic, but now we are second, and February is around the corner, it is not just our result that matters, nor the performances.
Here is one final stat for you. In 2020/21, the season lauded as a beacon for Imps fans, when Johnson, Rogers and Grant prowled the pitch, we had 53 points from 27 games and were top before the collapse. We only picked up eight points from the next seven games, which was the start of the implosion that saw us head to Wembley, not the travel agent, at the end of May. Madness to think that a season in which some fans described the atmosphere as “toxic” and booed off Michael and the team against Rotherham is the same season in which we are tracking to have a better finish than our finest in half a century.
Up the Imps