I do love Not The Top 20 Podcast. George and Ali are probably the only people I can listen to just talking on a run.
My times dip without music, but it’s worth it to hear their informed opinions. This week, they’ve dropped their mid-season League One predictions, and they’re split on Lincoln City’s chances.
George Elek believes that our underlying data is a cause for slight concern and that the top six is going to be the best we will achieve. Ali Maxwell disagrees; he’s got us finishing top two.
It’s a great debate, and I’d recommend listening to the podcast here. I won’t reproduce all of their quotes, but this is what the two think.
Ali’s in favour of us going up top two
Ali Maxwell is comfortable that our underlying xG numbers are not a concern, and that the gap other teams need to make up will be too much, as we look ‘calm’.
“Great thing about football fandom predictions is you’ve got two guys sitting here and George has said to you, Lincoln City fans, that he doesn’t believe in you,” said Ali.
“I’m sitting here, looking down the lens, saying I do believe in you, Lincoln. And I do think you’re finishing the automatic promotion places.
“I recognise that things may slow down. We talked about it last week as well, you know, overperformance to a certain degree at both ends of the table.
“I’m less worried in the five game, ten game xG numbers, partly because A, they have played almost all the best teams in the league in that spell. And B, they have scored early in almost every game.
“They have taken the lead in so many of those games in the first half. The way that Lincoln play, which is not hugely proactive with the ball anyway, means that when they go ahead, like they are always going to soak up some pressure. The numbers are generally not going to be in their favour, and I think game state plays quite a big part in that.
“I do still think that mentioning the underlying numbers is important, because it suggests that particularly for Lincoln I’d be worried about a bit of a dry patch in front of goal. Collins is out injured long term. None of their other attackers are proven consistent finishers at this level.
“But Skubala and Lincoln just seem calm to me. They seem to have the answers to most of the challenges.”
George is worried about the numbers
I’m a stats man, George sold me on xG many seasons ago. He’s a pragmatic man (has to be, he supports Oxford) and he sees our numbers as a concern, and our recent run as something causing a little receny bias.
“You have to guard against recency bias,” he wanred. “In Lincoln’s case, obviously their current run is phenomenal. They’re beating good teams. They are, like Skubala deserves immense credit for what they are doing.
“The run of form that has got them into the position they’re in now… and the second thing to do is work out whether or not form levels are sustainable and actually drill past the results and look at underlying numbers.
“With Lincoln, I think it’s important to not just think, well, they’re an incredible team, look at the way they’re going now, this is going to continue. I am pretty confident that Lincoln will have a difficult run between now and the end of the season.
“A great part of that, in part, is because of injuries that they’ve already sustained and not having the biggest squad and not necessarily being able to strengthen the way that others can in January.
“Even though the results have been good, it is very hard, almost impossible, to maintain the PPG they’re posting during this run of games unless they improve their underlying numbers.”
The xG debate
The central issue is not whether xG has value, but how useful it really is when applied to City in isolation. George’s warning sign, built largely around xG ratio, feels overly blunt when set against the reality of how our matches tend to unfold. We score first more often than anyone else in the division, lead at halftime far more frequently than our rivals, and spend longer in front than any other side. Those factors inevitably skew the raw numbers, meaning any suggestion of danger based purely on aggregate xG lacks important context about how and when our games are being played.
That does not mean game state magically explains everything. The argument is not that we are “beating xG” simply because we go ahead early, but that using xG ratio alone to project our eventual fate is reductive. Other sides have also spent plenty of time in front, yet their numbers look very different. That points towards our approach when winning, how we manage games, how we control tempo, and when we choose not to force the issue. In that sense, our apparent overperformance says as much about decision making and tactical restraint as it does about chance quality.
The truth? Well, Chris has crunched some numbers for an article tomorrow, looking at xG, and how that’s affected by being in the lead or being behind. Will that help swing the debate Ali’s way, or George’s way? It remains to be seen, as I haven’t actually looked at Chris’s data, but it’s worth keeping an eye out for tomorrow.