Our start doesn’t feel like it has been easy. 

Reading, Plymouth, Bolton and Wigan were all expected to be top ten this season, with two or three of those clubs expected to be top six. While Burton, Wimbledon and Northampton are all teams you’d expect to beat, they’re also tough teams, organised and compact, and all those matches have been away from home.

How would one assess the difficulty of a club’s start? There are two ways – the PPG of each team a side has played, and their position right now. If we apply this to the current division, we find two clubs are outliers in terms of their start, and where they are in the division.

There are two methods by which we can work out who has had a challenging start, as you’ll see below.

Points Per Game Of Opposition

This table works out the points per game achieved by the opposition depending on where they played. For instance, Cardiff’s PPG in 0.93, based on Rotherham and Peterborough having 0 PPG away, Plymouth 0.75 and then home fixtures against Port Vale (0.25), Wimbledon (2.25), Luton (1.5) and Stockport (1.75). Add those up, divide by seven (Cardiff’s fixtures), and you get 0.93, the ‘easiest’ start in the division.

As a rule of thumb, the lower your actual position, the lower the PPG you’d expect to see. So, Huddersfield, Bradford and Wimbledon are the best performers, being 11 places higher than their PPG placing (Huddersfield), 10 (Bradford) and nine (Wimbledon).

We are pretty much bang in the middle, having had (according to PPG) the sixth-easiest starts, compared to our current placing of seventh.

An obvious standout here is Peterborough United. The teams they’ve faced have averaged 1.94 points, more than any other team. Rotherham’s start hasn’t been easy either, but those two are way ahead of Burton. It suggests Rotherham’s position of 18th is actually not bad, five better than where they ‘should’ be according to the PPG.

Exeter and Orient have had quite easy starts, and their league position doesn’t reflect this. The Grecians are 12 places below their PPG placing, Blackpool are nine, and Orient are seventh. These are three teams that might find the next few weeks tough.

Placing Of Opposition

This is a table that I hadn’t considered, and one that Pete researched and compiled this week. He worked out the average current league placing of the teams that everyone had faced.

In this instance, we’ll take Stevenage as the example. They’ve played Blackpool (currently 23rd), Rotherham (18th), Northampton (15th), Port Vale (20th), Huddersfield (6th), Wycombe (19th) and Mansfield Town (13th). Add those together and divide by seven (games played), and their average opponent placing is 16.3, the second ‘easiest’ start in the division.

This is interesting because once again, it highlights Peterborough’s atrocious run of fixtures, with an average placing of eighth. In fact, Posh have played four of the current top six, making their start one of the hardest. Don’t get too carried away, though, Posh fans – the reality check is that the one time you played a side in a ‘false’ position, Exeter, you were thrashed 3-0, so it’s not all roses and perfume.

What you would expect here is for a team to be around 12 – over the course of the season, everyone will play everyone, so eventually, your average position per opponent with be 12. At 14.9, we have had a more favourable start, the fifth ‘easiest’ in the division, so we’re two places below that in real terms. However, what it does show is generally, we are roughly where we deserve to be based on points per game of the opposition and other placings.

Again, the huge outlier here is Exeter City, who have had the easiest start in terms of positions played, but are 16th in the table. Port Vale fans might be panicking a little as well; they’re 20th, but have played clubs with an average placing of 12.6, another big difference. Mansfield, Blackpool, Bolton and Wycombe are the others whose positions are lower in the actual table than their positions in the opponent placing table.

Clubs to applaud? Wimbledon and Bradford both stand out massively. Wimbledo have played teams with an average position of 9.1, the second toughest start. Bradford have certainly outperformed their expected position, as have Huddersfield Town.

Overall Table and Conclusion

Opp PPG = Opponents Points Per Game

Opp PPG Position = Club’s position in the Opp PPG Table (higher position, easier start)

Diff Opp PPG = Difference between Actual Position and Opp PPG Position

Now Avg – Opponents’ current position average

Avg Pos – Club’s position in the average opponent position table (higher is easier)

Avg Diff – Difference between the two

There isn’t a huge amount you can infer from this, as each table has arguments to be made against the data. Obviously, it’s a small sample size, which makes the average league position of the opposition more relevant. The PPG table takes home and away into account, which gives it validity, but of course, if a side had had a tough start with injuries, or didn’t complete their squad before the window, that creates an outlier.

I discuss stats with Pete all the time, and he is a sceptic, but we both agreed the value here is in the outliers, not the middle of the pack. Bradford and Wimbledon can be applauded, while Peterborough fans can take solace in their start.

Exeter City (in particular), Blackpool and Port Vale might all be teams we see either falling down the table, or making managerial decisions very soon. They’re sides whose starts have been a little more favourable than others without a league position to show for it.