Whilst on the face of it, this season may seem similar to the last, Danny Cowley is facing something very different in the coming weeks.
For the last two pre-seasons, little has been truly expected. In 2016 when he first arrived with Nicky, we hoped for a top ten finish in the National League, maybe even a play off assault. Deep down most fans thought top five was possible, but Danny was able to play down the chances.
We were some way off a top five side he said, we were a work in progress. Of course we weren’t. We were the real deal, a swiftly assembled squad of winners, but with the view of being the little side reinforced constantly by management. Maybe because Tranmere were a ‘bigger club’, maybe because FGR had a huge budget, but we still felt like we were punching a bit above our weight.
Being underdogs in the FA Cup helped too, that fostered a unique ‘us against the world’ team spirit that every one adopted, players, management, fans and staff. That was never going to be east to repeat, even after we beat Ipswich we were ‘up against it’ against Dover. We beat a Championship club in the FA Cup and yet three days later Danny sold us as underdogs against Dover. Too many games in a short space of time, small squad, the usual rhetoric. It worked though, every time we snatched a big win, it worked.
At times, you wondered if defeat was a good thing because it allowed us to get back to being underdogs. Would we have gone on the run to beat Ipswich if we hadn’t lost to Guiseley on Boxing Day, once again giving us some grounding? Who knows.
Last season things were similar. Again, Danny seized on us being underdogs, newcomers to the league needing to find our feet and not expecting too much. Top ten was again the aim although many fans felt a top seven finish was possible. Quite how we could predict anything when the side that finished the season was so different from the opening day I don’t know, but again expectation was managed. We were a long way off Luton Town and Notts County, not perhaps in fan base, but in structure and approach. That was the rhetoric and the fact both put four goals past us away maybe proved that.
In the end we still finished above Mansfield, the big spenders we set as our benchmark. We still competed with Exeter and Carlisle, the play off hopefuls of twelve months prior. We still won the Checkatrade Trophy.
That brings us to July 2018, where we are no longer the small fry, no longer the new comers. This season we’ve recruited as strongly as ever, not just in John Akinde, but also Bruno Andrade (pictured top courtesy of Graham Burrell) and Michael O’Connor. We’ve set the standard in some areas and in others we’ve kept pace. We were the first to make a big signing, bringing in Bruno, but when our promotion rivals signed strikers, we followed suit.
Nobody around the club can pretend we’re anything other than a top seven side now and to a degree, most will expect a top three challenge if not a finish. The absolute minimum is the promotion spots, given the investment and summer commitments anything less would be a step back. How could we step back with better players, a training ground and arguably weaker opposition?
How will that manifest itself in Danny’s approach, both in press conferences and around the club. We’ve done well being the plucky underdog, even at Wembley we fostered that National League spirit to a degree. The draw kept handing us ties against bigger clubs, or higher placed opposition meaning we were forever able to play down our threat. The same applies to the play off campaign, there was always someone spending more, someone better equipped.
Is that the case now? How many other sides have shelled out a club-record fee for a striker? Who else has bought a 22-goal National League player in, or opened a new Elite Performance Centre to work with the players? Which other clubs have progressed at the rate we have in recent seasons? None?
Of the sides coming down, which are thought to be ‘bigger’ than us? Luton and Coventry certainly were but are Northampton or Bury? Oldham, a bigger team no doubt, are in peril so perhaps only MK Dons can be viewed as a true ‘like for like’ replacement of the quality we lost. Macclesfield will do well to survive despite their promotion, perhaps Tranmere will compete in the top half, but we should be a year ahead of them in terms of acclimatizing and development.
The only way we can look at ourselves as underdogs will be squad size and, to a degree, that will be our own doing. If Danny stretched and compromised on a player or two, we could go into the season with 23 or 24, but he won’t do that. It means the quality is higher amongst the 22 or 23, but also gives him a hook to use if we start to get an injury or two. We’ll be back to underdogs, back to battling adversity. Will it ring as true this time around?
No, the truth is for the first time in a long while, something is expected of the side. Maybe for the first time since the summer of the Magnificent Seven, Lincoln City are expected to be in the top seven and will perhaps be in most people’s predictions for promotion. It will be an unfamiliar sensation for us, and entirely new ground for Danny and Nicky who have perhaps managed to achieve success without ever having been one of the favourites throughout their career.
How they handle that, personally and as a team, will define just how much more of this unparalleled success we’re set to enjoy.
Picked up a coupon from the bookies and the Imps are 3rd favourites at 9-1 behind the 6-1 joint favourites MK Dons and Notts County. They are pretty mean odds but they can and will change after 3 matches.