Second On Valentine’s Day: Promotion Form or False Promise?

We go into a huge clash this weekend in second place.

Not just second, but six points clear in second, with a game in hand on our nearest rivals. They’re the visitors, and they’ll be looking to break Lincoln City hearts with a win. A win, I might add, that would not see them overhaul us, merely claw back a little of the advantage we have built up.

It promises to be a cracker, but I wondered what being second on Valentine’s Day usually led to. Of course, this is all for your information; I draw no inference of promotion or otherwise from history, but who has been second on Valentine’s Day, and have they stayed the course?

Here is the state of play for each season from 2016/17 to now, both going into Valentine’s Day and at the end of the season. Promotion, or no promotion? Michael Skubala’s side will set their own course through history, but here are the waters others have sailed before.

2016/17 – Not Promoted

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Sheffield United	31	19	6	6	58	34	24	63
2	Scunthorpe United	30	17	7	6	57	32	25	58
3	Bolton Wanderers	29	16	6	7	41	23	18	54
4	Fleetwood Town	31	14	10	7	44	31	13	52
5	Bradford City	31	12	15	4	39	27	12	51
6	Millwall	30	13	8	9	45	40	5	47

Well, this was a fine one to start with, wasn’t it? Picking a side from Lincolnshire with a points gap in second, holding off Bolton Wanderers. Here’s the killer: Scunthorpe still had Bolton to play at home as well, a game they won 1-0!

In fairness, there were differences. Scunny had played a game more, and by the time they met, Bolton were already second. That said, second on Valentine’s Day was not good for the Iron: they didn’t get promoted, and eventually began the slide that finds them in the National League right now.

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Sheffield United	46	30	10	6	92	47	45	100
2	Bolton Wanderers	46	25	11	10	68	36	32	86
3	Scunthorpe United	46	24	10	12	80	54	26	82
4	Fleetwood Town	46	23	13	10	64	43	21	82
5	Bradford City	46	20	19	7	62	43	19	79
6	Millwall	46	20	13	13	66	57	9	73

2017/18 – Title Winners

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Shrewsbury Town	31	19	7	5	42	24	18	64
2	Wigan Athletic	30	19	6	5	56	18	38	63
3	Blackburn Rovers	32	18	9	5	58	32	26	63
4	Rotherham United	32	17	5	10	55	38	17	56
5	Scunthorpe United	33	15	10	8	48	36	12	55
6	Bradford City	33	15	5	13	48	50	-2	50

Games in hand, Wigan looked to be sitting pretty in the hunt for promotion in 2017/18, and as we were fighting for a play-off spot in the division below, they remained relentless. They had games in hand over the chasing pack, and had two points more than we have after 30 matches.

They did end up being promoted, with Blackburn also overhauling Shrewsbury, who went on to lose at Wembley twice that season…

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Wigan Athletic	46	29	11	6	89	29	60	98
2	Blackburn Rovers	46	28	12	6	82	40	42	96
3	Shrewsbury Town	46	25	12	9	60	39	21	87
4	Rotherham United	46	24	7	15	73	53	20	79
5	Scunthorpe United	46	19	17	10	65	50	15	74
6	Charlton Athletic	46	20	11	15	58	51	7	71

2018/19 – Promoted

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Luton Town	32	20	8	4	64	27	37	68
2	Barnsley	31	18	8	5	57	27	30	62
3	Portsmouth	31	17	8	6	51	32	19	59
4	Sunderland	30	15	13	2	51	28	23	58
5	Charlton Athletic	32	16	7	9	48	33	15	55
6	Doncaster Rovers	31	15	8	8	58	39	19	53

Again, the margin between the two sides vying for the second spot was more marginal than this season. We have six points and a game in hand, but in 2019, Barnsley had three points and nothing more. The Tykes faced Pompey on February 23 at Fratton Park, and drew 0-0, failing to take their chance.

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Luton Town	46	27	13	6	90	42	48	94
2	Barnsley	46	26	13	7	80	39	41	91
3	Charlton Athletic	46	26	10	10	73	40	33	88
4	Portsmouth	46	25	13	8	83	51	32	88
5	Sunderland	46	22	19	5	80	47	33	85
6	Doncaster Rovers	46	20	13	13	76	58	18	73

2019/20 – Not Promoted

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Rotherham United	30	17	5	8	54	30	24	56
2	Peterborough United	32	16	7	9	64	37	27	55
3	Coventry City	29	14	12	3	41	28	13	54
4	Wycombe Wanderers	31	15	8	8	39	36	3	53
5	Sunderland	30	14	9	7	41	26	15	51
6	Portsmouth	29	14	8	7	43	30	13	50

This season doesn’t really count, as the season was curtailed early. Interesting though, it was still really close, one point the gap between Coventry and Peterborough. Of course, the table below doesn’t take points per game into account, which cost Posh a top-six spot.

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry City	34	18	13	3	48	30	18	67
2	Rotherham United	35	18	8	9	61	38	23	62
3	Oxford United	35	17	9	9	61	37	24	60
4	Portsmouth	35	17	9	9	53	36	17	60
5	Fleetwood Town	35	16	12	7	51	38	13	60
6	Peterborough United	35	17	8	10	68	40	28	59

2020/21 – Title Winners

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lincoln City	26	16	4	6	38	20	18	52
2	Hull City	28	15	4	9	41	24	17	49
3	Peterborough United	26	15	4	7	40	24	16	49
4	Portsmouth	26	14	6	6	44	23	21	48
5	Doncaster Rovers	25	15	3	7	43	30	13	48
6	Sunderland	27	11	11	5	39	24	15	44

Makes for hard reading, doesn’t it? Three points clear, but with two games in hand, we were in such a good position going into Valentine’s Day in 2021. We also had 20 matches left, but got just 22 points from those matches, relegation form, rather than promotion form.

We still got into the play-offs, as you’d imagine we will this season, no matter what, but it does show that a team can come into form and surge up the table, as Hull collected 40 points from just 18 games to win the title.

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Hull City	46	27	8	11	80	38	42	89
2	Peterborough United	46	26	9	11	83	46	37	87
3	Blackpool	46	23	11	12	60	37	23	80
4	Sunderland	46	20	17	9	70	42	28	77
5	Lincoln City	46	22	11	13	69	50	19	77
6	Oxford United	46	22	8	16	77	56	21	74

2021/22 – Title Winners

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Rotherham United	31	21	5	5	57	18	39	68
2	Wigan Athletic	28	18	5	5	50	27	23	59
3	Milton Keynes Dons	32	16	9	7	51	34	17	57
4	Sunderland	32	16	7	9	56	44	12	55
5	Wycombe Wanderers	31	15	9	7	47	35	12	54
6	Plymouth Argyle	30	15	8	7	52	36	16	53

It does feel unprecedented for a team to have six points and a game in hand, and in 2022, it was the team in second holding the aces. What it does feel like is rarely do the team with games in hand fluff their lines, apart from us in 2021!

Wigan picked up nine wins from their last 18 games, losing just three, to go from second to top. As you’ll see, the top two remained there from Valentine’s Day until the end of the season.

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Wigan Athletic	46	27	11	8	82	44	38	92
2	Rotherham United	46	27	9	10	70	33	37	90
3	Milton Keynes Dons	46	26	11	9	78	44	34	89
4	Sheffield Wednesday	46	24	13	9	78	50	28	85
5	Sunderland	46	24	12	10	79	53	26	84
6	Wycombe Wanderers	46	23	14	9	75	51	24	83

2022/23 – Play-Off Winners

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Plymouth Argyle	30	19	7	4	54	31	23	64
2	Sheffield Wednesday	29	18	8	3	50	20	30	62
3	Ipswich Town	30	15	11	4	56	31	25	56
4	Bolton Wanderers	31	16	8	7	43	23	20	56
5	Derby County	29	15	8	6	47	24	23	53
6	Barnsley	28	15	5	8	38	26	12	50

This was a remarkable season. 96 points would have got Sheff Weds the title in four of the seasons prior, and second in the other two. Plymouth and Ipswich were just so good, and one wonders if us and Bolton might end up trading points in the same way. We’re both in good form, so why not?

Interesting that Bolton had the same number of games and points as they do now, winning seven of their remaining 15 matches, but falling a place.

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Plymouth Argyle	46	31	8	7	82	47	35	101
2	Ipswich Town	46	28	14	4	101	35	66	98
3	Sheffield Wednesday	46	28	12	6	81	37	44	96
4	Barnsley	46	26	8	12	80	47	33	86
5	Bolton Wanderers	46	23	12	11	62	36	26	81
6	Peterborough United	46	24	5	17	75	54	21	77

2023/24 – Promoted

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Portsmouth	33	20	9	4	54	29	25	69
2	Derby County	32	19	6	7	57	29	28	63
3	Bolton Wanderers	30	19	5	6	54	29	25	62
4	Barnsley	31	16	9	6	56	35	21	57
5	Peterborough United	31	16	8	7	59	39	20	56
6	Oxford United	32	16	7	9	54	40	14	55

The year we came so close and, once again, Bolton are right up there. They’ve been a feature of the top six for so long now, but with just a point and two games in hand, they couldn’t catch Derby County in 2023/24. The two did meet after this at Pride Park, Derby, winning 1-0 to steal the advantage from their rivals, Kane Wilson (above) with the goal.

The top two collected 31 and 29 points respectively, a figure you feel would be enough for us to keep second this campaign.

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Portsmouth	46	28	13	5	78	41	37	97
2	Derby County	46	28	8	10	78	37	41	92
3	Bolton Wanderers	46	25	12	9	86	51	35	87
4	Peterborough United	46	25	9	12	89	61	28	84
5	Oxford United	46	22	11	13	79	56	23	77
6	Barnsley	46	21	13	12	82	64	18	76

2024/25 – Not Promoted

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham City	28	20	6	2	50	19	31	66
2	Wycombe Wanderers	29	17	8	4	55	30	25	59
3	Wrexham	29	16	7	6	43	25	18	55
4	Stockport County	31	15	9	7	47	30	17	54
5	Charlton Athletic	30	14	8	8	40	29	11	50
6	Huddersfield Town	29	14	7	8	41	26	15	49

Aah, the season from history that gives Bolton hope. Wycombe had a four-point gap (not six), although they’d played one fewer than we have, and Wrexham had played two fewer. Still, at the end of the season, Wycombe had collapsed, getting seven wins from their last 17 matches, a run simply not enough to keep them in the top six.

They did have to play, at Wycombe, and Wrexham got the advantage in that game, winning 1-0 to help them overhaul the struggling Chairboys, who ended up sitting out of the automatic promotion hunt.

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham City	46	34	9	3	84	31	53	111
2	Wrexham	46	27	11	8	67	34	33	92
3	Stockport County	46	25	12	9	72	42	30	87
4	Charlton Athletic	46	25	10	11	67	43	24	85
5	Wycombe Wanderers	46	24	12	10	70	45	25	84
6	Leyton Orient	46	24	6	16	72	48	24	78