There is no hiding away from the fact Blackpool were much better in the second half, wind in their sails, backs up and with a home crowd that seemed to finally wake up. Were they dominant? Their xG was 2.38, which was the most dominant half from either side in a Lincoln game since we beat Plymouth 3-2. Ten shots, two on target, was the same as Barnsley in the second half on Tuesday night, and we won that 3-1, so again, it pays to just take a step back.
I would like to pose a question for those who claim the subs weren’t right, or that we somehow had the handbrake on. How would you do it differently? At what point do you think Michael Skubala shouted to Jack Moylan (for instance) and said, ‘Jack, just put the handbrake on mate, we need to invite pressure’. Honest answer? If you think that happened, seriously, you’re deluded. I might lose a few people at this point for writing that, but seriously, do you think that happens?
Why did the game swing? Well, in terms of shots, the first half was actually fairly even. We had control, as in we were 2-0 up, but it’s not like we took our foot off the pedal after the goal, we hadn’t been rampant at all. I’d almost argue that Blackpool were so bad defensively that we didn’t need to be brilliant, we just needed to do our things. Their change at half time, Andy Lyons coming on, made them a little more stable, a base from which their creative players could go and do their thing.
It’s actually a good rearguard action from us. Having to defend, away from home, against a half decent side is not easy. They should have scored before they did, Tom Bloxham with a good chance, but while their xG racked up, it was a collection of shots, rather than rock-solid chances.
Their goal is frustrating in so many ways. Firstly, I thought immediately, ‘it’s a foul on Towler’. It wasn’t. He was looking for it, but it wasn’t a foul. Then they create a chance, quickly, with our defenders probably just switching off. Then Wickens makes a great save, only for a shank to put it back at the feet of Fletcher.
By the way, the xG for their goal (both shots) was 1.09. So with those two, and the penalty, we’re just under two, suggesting while they were the better side, the numbers probably don’t fully explain the outcomes.
There are two chances of ours which don’t get ranked in that xG as well, the two disallowed goals. I’ve looked at both, the Reach one is really close. It looks to me like George Honeyman is playing him on, but Reach steps towards goal as Honeyman steps away. There is no way the lino can see as the ball is played, because if he’s looking at the header back in, he’s not looking at the line.
As for Obikwu being offside, it’s simple. He’s not. Now, would we have scored had the whistle not gone? Maybe, maybe not, but he’s not offside, and it’s a call that the lino got wrong. What I will say is this, those two calls are lino-driven, but in the main, I don’t think Seb Stockbridge was that bad.
That’s it, really. We didn’t lose the game, and if at the start of the season you’d given me a draw at Blackpool, I’d have said thank you very much. It’s a good point and a ‘bad’ one. It’s good, because, well, it’s a draw at a club bigger than us. It’s bad because we were 2-0 up and seemingly in control. Had a lino not had an eager flag, we’d have scored the third and killed the game, and had their lad not shanked a chance across the box, we’d probably have won 2-1. That’s football, it’s why we love it and why many seem to loathe it in equal measure.
Me? Well, I put on my safety bet at 2-0, £25 at odds of 5/1 on a draw, so I came out of it okay. I’d rather have had the win and been £25 down, but it’s my little safety net, and so far this season it’s netted me a few quid (Exeter and Wycombe the two other games I’ve won). However, that in itself does pose a question. I think we’re overachieving, getting more bang for our buck than four of the five teams around us. Far from being critical when we drop points, I look at ones we’ve taken, against the likes of Luton with a budget four times the size of ours, and I feel proud.
There is that little voice in the back of my head saying, ‘yeah, but what if…’. What if we had not conceded against Exeter? What if we’d hung on against Wycombe for the draw? What if we’d held on at Bolton? What if the lino had kept his flag down yesterday?
The one thing to remember when saying that is that those ‘what if’ questions are piled on top of a solid foundation and overachieving that has put us third. It’s not good to criticise good work because it might have been better, because many fail to acknowledge the foundation, and look only at the outcome.
Yesterday’s outcome? A solid point. On to Cardiff City, a game which could see us go into Christmas second in the table. Imagine that.