The Next Few Fixtures

The next few weeks, on paper, are a mixed bag, but actually, in terms of points per game, we’ve got a run of favourable games coming up, which, in theory, could leave us close to the magical 50 points mark as early as March 11th.

It’s like this – we play Forest Green on the hill this weekend, and PPG (points per game) suggests we’re the favourites. They average 0.75 PPG at home, whilst we have 1.20 away from home. MK Dons visit us on Tuesday, and our PPG at home is 1.40 compared to 1.19 away for them. After that, bearing in mind our away PPG is 1.20 and our home PPG is 1.40, we face Oxford at home (1.06) and Cheltenham away (1.20). In terms of stats, that’s three wins and a draw, or 49 points.

Of course, it won’t happen like that, and a trip to Exeter (1.33) is one we should lose, according to the stats; Peterborough and Fleetwood are the two games we have higher averages in again. I think I said it on the podcast last week, our run of fixtures isn’t actually as horrible as it looks, and in terms of the top six, we only have Sheff Weds and Plymouth to visit and Barnsley to come to the Bank.

Indeed, if we go back to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, we have seven matches against teams still threatened by relegation but just four against sides still in with a realistic promotion chance. In recent weeks, we’ve looked better against those sorts of teams, making the next few months (hopefully) a little easier on the nerves than we anticipated.