Erhahon / Davenport

I wonder if Matty Virtue’s injury spelled the end for Davenport as much as anything. If Virtue stayed fit, maybe we’d have been willing to take more of a look at Jacob, given him the benefit of the doubt with injuries and kept a low wage on the books. Instead, Virtue gets injured; we know fitness-wise we can’t rely on the former Blackburn man, so we make our move for Ethan. Maybe I’m just hypothesizing with no real basis, but that’s what this blog is for, right?

This is an upgrade; Ethan Erhahon has played over 100 games for St Mirren, and he’s 21. Jacob Davenport is 24 and hasn’t played half as many. Players are only assets if they’re fit and firing, and sadly for Jacob, he couldn’t get there. In terms of talent, I think he could have been a top player for us, but if he’s fit 25% of the time, there’s no point.

Ethan is the marquee signing of the winter window. He’s our player, and he’s promising to a point where it isn’t just people around our club saying it but people in wider football circles. The proof will, of course, be when he steps onto the field, so I’ll hesitate with the hyperbole for now, but he could be a major signing.

Outcome – Upgrade

Hopper / Plange

I’m going to be really respectful to Tom here because a 2020/21 Tom Hopper wouldn’t have been sold to Colchester United. He played 39 matches in the league that season, starting 33 and bagging 8 goals. In the 18 months since, he’s only managed 36 League One games, starting 24 and scoring twice. The drop-off is obvious – injuries took their toll last season, and despite returning to fitness pre-season, they did the same as soon as the campaign got underway.

With that in mind, if Luke Plange is fit to start 20 games between now and May, he’ll be more of an asset. I really like Tom, but for 18 months, he’s been a shadow of the player he once was. Going into this window, he was in the last six months of his deal with no signs that a new one was in the offing. Therefore, by getting a transfer fee and replacing him with a player on a short-term deal, we’ve essentially improved our final situation.

Is Luke Plange better? We don’t know, we haven’t seen him play, but he has scored more league goals this season, albeit in the Belgian second tier, and he played 20-odd Championship games last season with goals to his name. On paper, this is an upgrade, as it is on the pitch. Around the training ground? Tom will be missed.

Outcome – Upgrade

Dylan Duffy

That leaves us with Duffy to discuss, a 20-year-old unknown from UCD who comes with no fanfare and no expectations. As I write the name Duffy, for some reason, I think ‘Damien Duff’ and get excited. Also, the Championship Manager fan in me (showing my age there) remembers the thrill of signing a young AM RLC who goes on to be a huge star, and I’m romanticising his arrival before I’ve watched any highlights.

The fact is this; he’s a potential attacking option who we might not see at all between now and May, or who could get a few minutes and explode onto the scene. He’s a player we didn’t have in the squad before the window opened, he hasn’t replaced anyone, and therefore he brings depth.

Outcome – Upgrade

Devil’s Advocate

So, the window has been a success, right? Yes, in terms of fulfilling what Mark Kennedy said in interviews, it has. We are stronger now than we were on January 1st, and that’s essentially the job done. However, that does come with a caveat – we do still look light in certain areas.

I think we all expected a defender to go, but instead, we’re going into the last six months with more centre-halves than attackers. I wonder if the recent absence of Joe Walsh and a desire to bring Lewis back gently has powered that decision. It means we look well stacked at the back, but we’re still light in midfielders. Even before Virtue’s injury we looked one knock away from a collapse, and the Lasse / Max combo doesn’t work. We need Erhahon to step in and be Matty Virtue quickly, and if he gets a knock, we’re back to square one. Also, we do lack a leader in that area, an experienced head to control the game. There’s belief that Erhahon can be that player, but despite the 100+ appearances, he’s still only 21. Is he a big enough personality to come in and stamp his authority on the team? I hope so.

Also, and I’ll say this for as long as time goes on, we’re light in the middle up top. I understand if we’d got two forwards in, we probably wouldn’t be able to attract a Luke Plange figure over the likes of Charlton. We’ve got him here because we gambled, we moved Tom on and said, “look, you’ll play now”, a bit like a desperate husband kicking his wife out, hoping his lover will move in with him. It was a risk, and it paid off. I don’t think it would have happened had we not sold Tom. Still, an injury to House or Plange, and we’re back to where we started. That’s the squad makeup we have, it’s one the club believe in, but part of me wouldn’t mind a journeyman centre forward coming in on a one-and-a-half-year deal. The problem is, you get a Joe Dodoo or Keiran Agard, and have they impacted the teams they’ve gone to? No. There’s a fine balance between depth and effectiveness and the club are hoping that they’ve struck in.

Conclusion

We’re stronger, on paper, than we were before the window, so it’s been a success using that metric. We’re still short in certain areas, through both injury and design, but the club clearly feel the window has been a success. Even if we’d signed Reeco Hackett-Fairchild, my understanding is one would have gone out, so we’re no light because we missed out.

Of course, any player is only as good as their environment and tactics they’re asked to play. The squad is (I think I have proven) better than it was 31 days ago. The task now is to make sure they play better than they have for the last 40-odd days, pick up some points and help lift us away from the bottom four.