Passes

There is little doubt that we’re a more passing side this season. We averaged 320 passes per game last season, but in the first six games of this campaign, we averaged 383. Little has changed in terms of the passes we’re making from then to now; in our last six fixtures, we averaged 386.

I didn’t think much had changed in some of the patterns, perhaps we’re a little less reliant on the back pass at the moment, but we seemed to play a similar number. Again, the early data is skewed by MK Dons where we made 624 passes; without that game, our average was 343. If anything, Michael Appleton has got us passing a little bit more than we were. It fits; he thought we were trying to force the issue when it came to forward passes in matches he watched before he took over and that’s something we’re not doing as much.

I found some of the passing stats really interesting. Accuracy has remained about the same, 77% compared with 78%, which would be expected as the player’s ability hasn’t changed. The number of lateral passes we’re playing has changed significantly though; in the first seven games, we played 63 per game, whereas in the last six matches we’ve played 141 per game, a huge increase.

A lateral pass is loosely a sideways pass. It’s not just the Alex Woodyard ‘side to side’ though, it’s also a midfielder stabbing a ball forward and sideways, but still on a relatively tight angle. I don’t think we’ve seen a huge increase in sideways passing, but the stats suggest we have.

What has that been at the expense of? Long balls are around the same, 55 in the first seven matches compared to 53 in the last six and forward passes are only slightly down as well, 150 per game compared to 143 in Michael Appleton’s reign. In the main, it’s been the backward passes that have taken the hit, as well as a slight reduction in the number of passes we’ve made into the final third. On the whole, we’re playing more passes but many of them are sideways, rather than forward.

This does fit with the more patient build-up Michael Appleton wants and perhaps as the players get used to the approach, we might see those all-important figures creep up; xG and shots.

The Message

I think the message which is coming out of the club has changed as well. Michael Appleton is wanting to consolidate, a swear word under the former manager. This is a mindset conundrum, something Helgy pointed out on Twitter. By saying we want to survive, not thrive, are we admitting we’re in a relegation battle rather than aspiring to be further up the table? I’m not so sure, but I do see the argument for a positive attitude. I feel there is plenty to be positive about; our shots on target have gone up from eight in the first four games of Michael Appleton’s reign to nine in our last two matches In the final three matches of the previous era, we managed ten.

I said on the podcast last week that Michael Appleton is preparing to be himself, not a poorly constructed version of Danny and Nicky. I think this is really evident in the number of other media appearances he’s made. there’s been a big interview in the Times with Henry Winter and the appearance on Quest TV as a pundit; he’s very keen to push Michael Appleton as manager of Lincoln, a man with his own story and not just a replacement of a former manager. It’s a clever ploy and whilst fans might not want to fully admit it, we all have to move on. Michael is going about that in a planned way, enforcing his own identity and never harping back to the previous one.

When I met up with him last week he was keen to ensure he delivered a consistent message and that’s certainly still the case. It’s all about chance creation and scoring goals and the major differences between the two managers is just that. We’ve created less, but as the influence of the new coach moves on we’re looking likely to develop into a better side. What we have created we’ve been a little more wasteful with, whereas at the beginning of the season we were putting chances away our xG suggested we shouldn’t be. Is that a tactical thing?

Or is it all about confidence and belief? If it’s the latter, I hope to see the current trend of improvement in both xG and shots on target continue over the coming league matches.