Weaknesses

At real ‘SWOT’ analysis covers strengths, weaknesses, opportunity and threat. We’re doing squad, tactics, weaknesses and opportunity. It’s only fair to temper this article with the things I suspect could hold us back.

I’ve already covered the possible lack of depth but as I’ve said, I don’t believe for one minute we’ll be going into September with the squad looking as it is. Danny will want cover, within his means of course, but he’ll know a knock to Neal Eardley right now would cause us serious problems.

Another issue that might begin to come apparent around Christmas is the number of players currently out of contract at the end of the season. Again, I know this will be on Danny’s mind and we’ve seen it with Harry already that things are happening, but once we hit the festive period the likes of Bruno could sign a deal elsewhere and walk away. I’m not too worried about the impact on the squad next summer, rather the disruption it could cause amongst supporters and players if it becomes an issue.

That leads me into the final worry; supporters. I love my fellow fans, be them the quite pensive types or even the ones who demand we sign new players with no rationale or reason on social media. If you support the Imps, you’re okay by me until you prove otherwise.

It’s those that will prove otherwise that are the worry. I genuinely feel our fanbase are on the brink of civil war sometimes. That goes right back to Barnet away in early 2017 where fans fought amongst themselves. It goes back to Cambridge and Crewe away where I heard the first mutterings of racist abuse. It goes back to Lincoln City Banter every Saturday as the well-meaning fans get drowned out by self-serving, agenda-driven ‘supporters’ who could tell you who Paul Robson was if you tied them to a chair and set fire to them.

Not all the sensationalists are new or returning fans, there are just as many outspoken fans who booed Matt Rhead in 2015 as there are those who don’t remember a minute of David Holdsworth action, but the messages and posts can be poisonous. If we lose a few games I fear that general unease will break out. Even some rational fans who feel the need to question everything can be a small part of the issue; seriously seeing a conspiracy in us using the Minster School because Danny’s kids go there? You’re better than that and you know it!

The final threat is expectation. Most of the informed media have us in or around the top eight. That’s a real worry for me, a real worry. We’re not at that level yet. We might be within a month, we might be within three, but right now we have a lot of learning to do. Remember the opening few games of the 2017/18 season? Defeat at Exeter, drawing at home to Morecambe? It was a learning curve and we’re going to have to see that out before we reveal our potential. Danny and Nicky haven’t managed at this level before and they’ll feel their way in.

I don’t think it’ll take long, but to lump us in with the likes of Fleetwood, Coventry and Blackpool is setting a dangerous bar for us to reach; it’ll have fans believing we’re there already and that’s not a positive at all.

Opportunity

The promotion brings us opportunity, but in what form? We’re at capacity in terms of attendances, the side is as good as at any point over the last 30 years and most of the mainstream media are predicting we finish as high as we have done since losing out to Fulham in ’83. We’re surely about at our saturation point, aren’t we?

No.

Our profile rises a little more; that’s the unseen element that managed to entice Clive here, the same force that brought Danny and Nicky, Michael Bostwick, Jason Shackell and Jack Payne. We’re one stage higher, one rung further up the ladder.

It sounds twee to say the world is watching, but they are. In this day and age everyone can see everything, how else did Oxford get their foreign owners? Football, even in League One, is a global game and if we do well and keep our focus on new investment up, we can go to the next level.

Look at Bournemouth; they’re the benchmark, aren’t they? Sure, they have big investment but that’s got to be our aim now. The current board are in place to attract new money but to ensure we’re not ‘doing a Bury’ in two- or-three-years’ time; suffering from the mistakes of a gamble. Remember back in 2010 when Steff Wright’s board took ‘a calculated risk’ on Chris Sutton? It wasn’t calculated, it was a risk.

That’s not something we have here. We have sound management, on and off the field. Sure, Danny gripes about the budget a bit and reminds fans where we are, but that’s his job. Clive will tell anyone who’ll listen that there will be no gamble now that puts the long-term future of the club at risk. Yet, here we are, boasting Jorge Grant and Jack Payne as permanent additions to our squad, as well as having Joe Morrell (tipped for the first team at Ashton Gate before his move) and (hopefully) 22-goal Tyler Walker on loan. If that’s done without risk, we’d be frightening with it.

We won’t get to see that though; we’ll work within our means, arguably punching a bit above our weight. Gillingham, Southend, Oxford, Blackpool, and Bolton are all clubs with more pedigree at this level, traditionally perhaps slightly bigger clubs (or much bigger in Bolton’s case) but many tip us to be above some of them, if not all. That’s not done by overspending, it’s done with the sort of management we’ve not had in an awfully long time, from top to bottom.

Outcome

I can’t remember exactly where I predicted us to be on the podcast, I expect somewhere between 11^th and 14^th. If I must nail down a number now, I’m going for 11^th, even with Tyler Walker.

Why? It’s a tough league and the teams we ‘expect’ to be above won’t be easy fodder for us. The teams we don’t expect to be above are going to be incredibly tough and its new territory for us. There are still so many variables that could affect where we are; new players, tactical advances, injuries and of course form.

I think to have us in the top six is madness, despite the great spirit we have. Plenty of other sides at this level have it as well and they didn’t make the top six. However, if you ask me what the significant differences between us this season and Doncaster last season are, I’d say John Marquis and little more. If Tyler Walker becomes a 25-goal League One striker, if we stay clear of injuries and maybe off a huge deadline day coup in the holding midfield role, maybe we can push towards the top six.

However, any hopes of being in the mix at the end of the season must be tempered now. Consolidate would be 14^th to 16^th. Struggles would be lower, but 11^th is ‘establish’.

The key players are going to be a combination of the usual suspects and one or two who I think might seriously kick on this season. Obviously, Payne and Morrell will be massive for us; Grant will be a key part of what we do but I think the first two are ‘game changers’. In the heart of the midfield they’re tasked with creating, whether it’s laying the ball out wide, looking to clip in the forwards or steadying the attack and spreading the play.

I’m also backing Harry Anderson for a big season. I can see him developing every time we start afresh and with his bullish strength and direct running I think he’ll frighten a few full backs. I can see him getting closer to ten goals this season and, if the end product improves slightly, maybe the same in assists.

We must remain injury-free, we might need to find a bit more pace at the back and Josh Vickers fitness is a worry for me still, but these are the small concerns against a bigger picture. I can’t see us dropping out of the division, I don’t see us locked in a relegation battle in May and for many that’s going to be enough.

Not for Danny though; if he’s got us in the top half by March he’ll want to push on even higher come April.

I do think we’ll see a cup run or two; Danny loves his ‘football fortune’ and the EFL Trophy offers an option to keep fringe players involved. I’d be backing Jordan Adebayo-Smith to start all the group matches if he’s still with us and not out on loan; given a chance he could be a dark horse for a first team squad place by the time you’re eating turkey.

There is plenty to look forward to this season, but it won’t all be plain sailing and I’d widely recommended the use of the ‘block’ button in the event of three defeats on the spin. I’ll be trying hard not to rise to the doubters and sensationalists, preferring instead to listen to reasoned debate and comment, whichever side of positivity it lands on.

Most of all, over and above everything; enjoy the season. We’ve seen some dark days, had some awful afternoons at Sincil Bank and this season is a sort of pay off, for those who don’t feel three trophies in as many seasons has quite done the trick.

Mind you, if you did witness North Ferriby beat us 4-1 in the FA Trophy, at home, I’d be inclined to agree with you.

Special ‘get well’ message to go out to my accountant and Imps’ fan Terry Ramm. Terry had heart surgery this week and misses the opening game of the season, we wish him a speedy recovery.