Colchester United P41, 61pts

Accrington (H), Notts County (H), Lincoln (A), Swindon (H), Exeter (A)

Colchester are still in the mix, but like Carlisle they concede a game to the clubs above and they’re no more than mathematically still in the hunt. When you consider their five remaining games are all sides above them, they’re not going to end up in the top seven. What they will do though, is have a say who does.

They’ve won three on the bounce, beating Luton during that time, so they’ll take some points in the run in. The huge, burning question is where. I think Accrington will beat them which will leave them with four to play needing four wins, that doesn’t bode well for County. They’re stumbling through the last couple of weeks and a trip to Colchester isn’t what they’ll want to see on the fixture list. I think they could beat County. meaning they come to us needing three points to keep their slim hopes alive. There endeth their season.

That isn’t to say they’ll lose at the Bank, but I can’t see them winning either. From the last two games there’s perhaps three points, so I’m going to give them four from their final three games, or seven from the last five. It’s not enough to win promotion, it is enough to rob someone else of it. Speaking of which…..

Swindon Town P40 62pts

Carlisle (H), Yeovil (H), Newport (A), Grimsby (H), Colchester (A), Accrington (H)

Swindon have one win in the last six, an indication that it was they who truly lost out in the little managerial merry-go-round that we all endured last month. David Flitcroft gave up a solid hope of a play off spot with the Robins to shuffle to out of sorts Mansfield and in truth, both sides have suffered as a result.

Swindon’s results haven’t been terrible, a draw at Crawley is a decent outcome, as is a draw at Morecambe. They could be forgiven for losing to Exeter too, only the truly serious play off contenders will be beating the Grecians around this time of the season. It just doesn’t bode well for a side needing at least four wins for a spot in the top seven.

I can see ten points for the Robins, wins against Yeovil, Newport and Grimsby will add to a draw with Carlisle, but those last two games look really tricky. If there is anything at Colchester they might be alive going into the final game, but Accrington will be celebrating not only promotion but probably the title and they’ll wrap up a special season with all three points. It’s another year in League Two for this lot, but I’m not sure Phil Brown is the right man to take them forward.

Mansfield P40 63pts

Crewe (H), Stevenage (A), Chesterfield (A), Port Vale (H), Yeovil (A), Crawley (H)

We’d all love to see this lot fail, wouldn’t we? Despite going, they’re still stained by Evans and over spending and nobody would be sad if they missed out, I’ll tell you something though, it’s going to be very close indeed.

David Flitcroft looked like he was swapping one play off challenge for another but, if things carry on how they are doing, he’s actually swapped one failed assault for another. Oops.

That run in does look favourable though, certainly the three home games are all winnable. Much depends on what they can do away from home, they’ve only won six on their travels all season and both Stevenage and Yeovil are tough places to go. The big derby with Chesterfield is critical for both sides too, if Jack Lester’s men don’t win that they’ll be staring relegation in the face. Quite often, it is better not to face teams at the bottom in the last few games because they tend to spring a surprise.

Of all the run ins so far, Mansfield’s does look favourable and although they’ve not won in seven games, I think there’s 10 points from their last six games as a bare minimum. They should win those three home games, they should draw as a minimum at Stevenage and Crawley. I fancy Chesterfield to stay up so that game is a potential banana skin, but I can see Mansfield Town ended the season on 74 points. In seasons gone by, that would be enough to secure a top seven finish.

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